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I need your help on making an economic analysis (updated)

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After I post this to Reddit, where else should this be seen?
  Wired
  Cracked
  Forbes
  Ars Technica
  Boing-Boing
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Alexius08

Destitute Millionaire

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:46 pm
I came across an article about the hyperinflation in Diablo 3, written by real economists. Looking at the presented list of in-game items and their corresponding prices in the span of a few weeks, it seems that they only hit millions. However, it attracted some attention from the media.

One year after that article was published, here we are, regularly dealing with prices that are in the billions, and yet, there's no media coverage of it. I've gathered some data before, but it isn't enough, and I have to do research on more item as well so that we can present that our case is worse than Diablo's.

I don't know how to make tables using BB Code, and I've never seen anyone post one on Gaia, so I did my draft using Reddit instead. Below are excerpts from a report I'm doing:

User Image
User Image
User Image
User Image

The other items I decided to track are the Longcat Scarf, White Ink, Red Ink, Old Crumpled Newspaper, and Ticket. I have data from 2006 to early 2013. However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014. Thus, I'd like to ask for your help on filling out the blank spaces by searching the forums for threads that noted the price of the listed items. And when we're done, I'll include them on the post I'm preparing for Reddit.

I'm done researching. The article that will include these charts, however, might need some tweaks.  
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:04 pm
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.  

Kor Saiyajinkami

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Alexius08

Destitute Millionaire

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:10 pm
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.  
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:29 pm
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.


But they should help with the "However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014." part, right?  

Kor Saiyajinkami

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Alexius08

Destitute Millionaire

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:33 pm
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.


But they should help with the "However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014." part, right?

It's of little use.

For example, here's a graph of the price of white ink that I saved a few months ago:
User Image  
PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:37 pm
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.


But they should help with the "However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014." part, right?

It's of little use.

For example, here's a graph of the price of white ink that I saved a few months ago:
User Image


Ah I see what ur Saiyan. It isn't detailed enough to be of much help, since the denominations are too large, right?  

Kor Saiyajinkami

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Alexius08

Destitute Millionaire

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:39 pm
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.


But they should help with the "However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014." part, right?

It's of little use.

For example, here's a graph of the price of white ink that I saved a few months ago:
User Image


Ah I see what ur Saiyan. It isn't detailed enough to be of much help, since the denominations are too large, right?

Exactly.  
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:00 am
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Alexius08
Kor Saiyajinkami
Well for pricing over the last year the MP Graphs for comparing prices could help you ya know.


The problem is that it's not helpful for researching on prices of items before the removal of the gold cap. The scale of the graphs are linear, yet the graphs mostly show an exponential curve.


But they should help with the "However, I'm not done yet searching for price data from August 2013 to August 2014." part, right?

It's of little use.

For example, here's a graph of the price of white ink that I saved a few months ago:
User Image


Ah I see what ur Saiyan. It isn't detailed enough to be of much help, since the denominations are too large, right?

Exactly.


Gotcha *said using Jaden Yuki from YGO GX's Japanese Voice since it's his catchphrase in the Original Japanese Version*  

Kor Saiyajinkami

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Alexius08

Destitute Millionaire

PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:11 am
I've finished compiling the data. Maybe you can review for me the post I'm about to make so that I won't miss anything:


Some of you might have heard of the hyperinflation that happened in Diablo 3. However, the hyperinflation rates there pale in comparison to the hyperinflation rates in Gaia Online, a forum-based website intended for teens and young adults.

In Gaia Online, users are given avatars, houses, cars and aquariums for them to customize using items available in the site. Items are produced in:

  • Gold shops, where regular items can be bought using gold, the site's primary tradeable virtual currency.
  • Cash shops, where premium items can be bought using cash, the site's non-tradeable premium currency, available for $0.01 each.
  • A casino, which sells tokens for use in the casino games (blackjack and slots) at the fixed price of 1 gold each. Winnings there could be cashed out into tickets that could be used to buy items from the casino's rewards shop.
  • Several other games which reward users component items that could be processed into other, more valuable items
  • Special events, which give items to users depending on their degree of participation.
  • Giftboxes and chests that randomly appear on the site, which give items when opened.
    Gold is generated by interacting with site features in various ways: posting in the forums, voting in polls and playing the site's games, among others. Trade is done either through a) the site's virtual auction house (the Marketplace) where users run their own stores, sell their items for a set price in gold (or auction it to the highest bidder) and are charged with a 2% sales tax for every completed transaction, or b) direct user-to-user trade, where users negotiate in a dedicated trading subforum within the site and avoid taxes (although the prices in the trading subforum are mostly tied to the prices in the marketplace).

    Frequently, items in the cash shops are sold only for a limited time. The sale of items on most other shops, on the other hand, are almost never discontinued. This provides a price ceiling for present gold shop items and prevents the sale of those items for profit. Users seeking profit are limited to selling past gold shop items, cash shop items, event items, game items (including tokens and tickets) and giftbox/chest items. The best-selling items in the marketplace tend to be cash shop items that can be equipped by the user's avatar, followed by game items.

    Before the massive hyperinflation, Gaia's virtual economy has been mostly stable and encouraged users to save up for items they want to equip for their avatar. For example, in this thread dating back to the peak of Gaia in January 2008, the user quested to have an Emo Bag, a past cash shop item. By the time she posted the thread, said item was worth 350,000, and, like most other Gaians, she thought that she could consider herself rich enough if she had 100,000. Like most other economies (virtual or real), the price of specific items went up when demand for it increased and went down when demand decreased. The following table shows the prices of selected items throughout the years whenever a thread that mentions the price of said item in one way or another is available:
    User Image
    The prices slowly increased through the years, owing to the gradual decline of site activity that began in 2009. Many members who announced their departure give away their gold and their items to others, keeping the amount of items and gold mostly constant (although item production was somewhat affected). The inflation rate is mostly tolerable, and anyone could earn enough gold to buy items for their avatar if they spent enough time in the site.

    What destabilized the economy, however, is the sale of gold-generating items in the cash shops that began in August 2013, a few months after Gaia's latest management took over. First were the gold generators called "Flynn's Booty" and "Flynn's Chest", which triggered price hikes on several items. Several petitions to end the sale of such items have been ignored, saying that some users liked those items. A picture of Gaia's COO presenting "Flynn's Booty" as an example of gamification and operant conditioning leaked to the forums and users began blaming the upper management for the hyperinflation. Relations between staff and users have deteriorated so much that the long-standing tradition of weekly talks between the staff and the users ended a week later, following countless calls for the resignation of the CEO (who received the nickname of "he-who-must-not-be-named" after bans over the use of his real name) and the COO. The succeeding table shows prices of the items in the earlier table, from August to October 2013:
    User Image
    Despite the incident, gold generators began receiving other names before being re-released into the cash shops. The gold they promised to give to users began increasing to keep up with the inflation, to a point that some people are complaining of not being able to handle more than 2,147,483,647 gold in transactions and in their accounts. The response was to increase the cap to 9,223,372,036,854,775,807 gold, encouraging further hyperinflation. Below is the price data between November 2013 and March 2014:
    User Image
    Weeks after increasing the gold cap, Gaia began releasing gold generators that are worth more than the previous gold limit. And when asked about the economy, the staff continue to insist that the economy is healthy despite the continuing exponential increase of prices of almost everything. However, it is becoming apparent to users that the economy is becoming unstable, and less gold generators are being sold. Thus, the marketing team began relying on increasingly-intrusive methods to advertise gold generators and/or Gaia cash:

    1. Once used sparingly for useful site updates, the site-wide announcements are now used several times a day to advertise constant sales of Gaia cash and the latest repackagings of Flynn's Booty. Most users ignore the announcements nowadays.
    2. Pop up ads for Gaia Cash have also begun appearing on the site.
    3. When both were ignored, the admin began sending advertisements through the private messaging system. The userbase could no longer ignore it and reported the admin for spam. When told that they cannot, they took their grievances to the Site Feedback forum and began the biggest revolt the site has ever seen. The staff realized their mistake and ended the spamfest, but without acknowledging the outrage that surrounded it.


    Increasing desperation on selling the gold generators eventually became apparent when the prices of those items became discounted, some as high as 70%. And in July 2014, a gold generator worth a trillion was released. Below is the price data from April to August 2014:
    User Image
    Unfortunately, other features of the site also suffered due to hyperinflation. Before the first release of "Flynn's Booty", voting on forum polls and in the various weekly official contests (for 12 gold per vote), posting anything in the forum (for 125 gold per post, and Gaia has a subforum dedicated to spam posts), and playing the site's games (for probably 1000 gold per hour in the old games and 10,000 gold per hour in zOMG!, the site's MMORPG) earned users enough. It also had a thriving art industry where talented users sell sketches to interested buyers.

    After "Flynn's Booty" got released for a few times, activity on the gold-producing parts of the site declined. The worst victims are many of Gaia's games. Now considered unprofitable, almost nobody bothers to play them anymore. Posts made just to earn gold have also decreased significantly. Voting for gold became unviable as well, so even the winners of the weekly contests can't even get an average rating of four whole stars out of five like they did before. Artists in the art industry had to resort with bartering items for artworks to avoid going out of business.

    As it stands today, the most-sought items in Gaia Online are worth billions and billions due to steady release of gold generators for almost a year. Although the prices of some items have started dropping, I don't know how long the deflation would last before a future reincarnation of Flynn's Booty sends prices soaring once more, since Gaia seems to have no plans on stopping the sale of gold generators altogether (whether alone or combined with item generators).


This article is intended for non-Gaians who are interested on virtual economies. If there's anything that needs to be edited, please tell me. I don't know if I got the part about Gaia's art industry right since I've never traded there.  
PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:54 pm
From what I can see, that post presents the economic problems of this site fairly well. And of course, the charts you've created help illustrate what's going on. At the very least, I think non-Gaians will be able to understand the general gist of the problem.

But that's only from what I've seen. I'm sure a second opinion is always in demand.  

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Anyannah

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PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:36 pm
Alexius08

  • Cash shops, where premium items can be bought using cash, the site's non-tradeable premium currency, available for $0.01 each.


  • I have to be honest and tell you that I was prepared to be completely and totally underwhelmed by this, but I also have to admit now that I was completely wrong. You've done an absolutely wonderful job with this in so many ways.

    I do have an observation, however, with part of your post as quoted above. I'm quite confused by the 0.01 each. Does one GC only cost a penny? I'm sorry for being so ignorant to this, but I avoid GC like a plague, and I'm honestly unfamiliar with the true cost outside of what 1GC might equal in gold (which is a LOT!)

    Also, I might have overlooked it, but perhaps a mention of Gaia staff discontinuing ATA in an effort to shut the door in our faces with regard to any true member feedback might be warranted? Just a thought.

    Again, wonderful job! I hope your efforts are seen and noticed outside of Gaia and that the effects might be felt within. Thank you for caring enough to do this!!  
    PostPosted: Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:54 pm
    Joiva
    Alexius08

  • Cash shops, where premium items can be bought using cash, the site's non-tradeable premium currency, available for $0.01 each.


  • I have to be honest and tell you that I was prepared to be completely and totally underwhelmed by this, but I also have to admit now that I was completely wrong. You've done an absolutely wonderful job with this in so many ways.

    I do have an observation, however, with part of your post as quoted above. I'm quite confused by the 0.01 each. Does one GC only cost a penny? I'm sorry for being so ignorant to this, but I avoid GC like a plague, and I'm honestly unfamiliar with the true cost outside of what 1GC might equal in gold (which is a LOT!)
    Without the discounts, $1 would give 100 GC.

    Joiva
    Also, I might have overlooked it, but perhaps a mention of Gaia staff discontinuing ATA in an effort to shut the door in our faces with regard to any true member feedback might be warranted? Just a thought.

    I have already mentioned it:
    Quote:
    Relations between staff and users have deteriorated so much that the long-standing tradition of weekly talks between the staff and the users ended a week later, following countless calls for the resignation of the CEO (who received the nickname of "he-who-must-not-be-named" after bans over the use of his real name) and the COO.
    .

    Joiva
    Again, wonderful job! I hope your efforts are seen and noticed outside of Gaia and that the effects might be felt within. Thank you for caring enough to do this!!


    Thanks for your support. I've been endorsing outside intervention as the only way out of our problems since I noticed the inflation.  

    Alexius08

    Destitute Millionaire


    Punktz

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    PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 2:26 am
    I think you did a great job. It's so easy to read and informative 3nodding
    Is that
      supposed to be there though? Also, in the COO's presentation part I think you should add a simple little explanation about gamification and operant conditioning.

      I haven't heard of those sites in the poll (since I don't usually read magazines), but from what wikipedia says I vote for wired, forbes, and boing-boing, and maybe arse technica.
     
    PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:21 am
    Punktz
    Is that
      supposed to be there though?

    I'm trying to make a numbered list. However, they don't work here.

    Punktz
    Also, in the COO's presentation part I think you should add a simple little explanation about gamification and operant conditioning.

    I'd probably add a snippet on operant conditioning. However, someone explained to me on Reddit three months ago, "Selling gold for real-world currency is the inverse of gamification, as it represents the removal of game-elements from a game, as opposed to gamification, which is the inclusion of game elements in non-game activities."
    This is of course assuming that those concepts were the driving forces behind gold generators.

    Punktz
    I haven't heard of those sites in the poll (since I don't usually read magazines), but from what wikipedia says I vote for wired, forbes, and boing-boing, and maybe ars technica.

    The writing styles on those four are mostly serious. Cracked's articles seems to be mostly have a lighthearted approach. I'll try contacting writers from all five, and I'll try to reach gaming news sites like IGN, although I'm not sure if they're interested on virtual worlds like Gaia.  

    Alexius08

    Destitute Millionaire

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